Insolvencies Set to Rise for a Fifth Year — Reading Allianz Trade's Global Insolvency Outlook (April 2026) from a Trade Credit Insurance Perspective

Credit insurers continuously track payment behavior and insolvencies at companies worldwide, and publish their forecasts regularly. These reports are often read as economic commentary, but for companies that use or are considering trade credit insurance, they are also a guide to how insurers will approach the next renewal.

This article introduces the main points of Allianz Trade's "Global Insolvency Outlook 2026-27", published on April 22, 2026, and reads them from the practical side of trade credit insurance. All figures come from the company's published material, and the forecasts may be revised as conditions change.

* As of November 2026. We will update this article when the company publishes its next outlook.

Main points of the report

Notably, the forecast was raised within six months. In October 2025 the company expected insolvencies to rise 5% in 2026. In the April 2026 revision it raised 2026 to +6% to reflect the Middle East situation, and said 2027 would stay flat at a high level. The underlying view of the report is that rising insolvencies are not a temporary phenomenon but a trend lasting several years.

Credit insurers' forecasts feed into their underwriting

A credit insurer's insolvency forecast is not just an economic projection. The same company reviews credit limits on each buyer and sets premium rates. Credit insurers set limits based on buyers' financial health and other factors, and keep monitoring buyers during the policy period. For sectors and countries where they expect insolvencies to rise, limit reviews become more cautious and existing limits may be revised. The report can be read as an early indication of that direction.

Four things policyholders should check

1. Do limits on key buyers cover current trading?

Limits can be reduced or cancelled during the policy period, usually with effect for shipments after that. For your largest buyers, regularly check the gap between the current balance and the limit. If you wait for a reduction notice before thinking about a response, you may not be able to decide on shipments in time.

2. Have you decided what to do if a limit is reduced?

The main options when a limit is reduced are explained in When the credit limit falls short. Agreeing with the sales team in advance which buyers to act on, and in what order, speeds up decisions.

3. Are discretionary limits being used as the policy requires?

When insolvencies rise, claims rise too, and compliance with policy conditions is checked more closely at claim time. Some policies allow discretionary limits set by the policyholder when certain conditions are met. If you use them, check that the agreed credit management procedures (checking payment history, obtaining credit reports, etc.) are actually carried out and recorded.

4. Does cover include conditions in export markets?

As the report points out, geopolitics is one cause of the current rise in insolvencies. In export trade, payment can fail not only because the buyer becomes insolvent (commercial risk) but also because of the buyer's country, for example through exchange controls or import restrictions (political risk). Check whether your export credit insurance covers political risk and whether there are restrictions on covered countries. Investment in overseas subsidiaries and facilities is covered in our insight on political risk insurance.

For companies not yet insured

Insurance covers uncertain future losses, so limits are not granted on buyers already overdue at the time of application or whose credit problems are already visible. When insolvencies are rising, it is important to start considering cover before concerns become concrete. How it works and how to get a quote are explained in What is trade credit insurance, and the differences from guarantee factoring in our comparison.

Impact on renewal negotiations

When insolvencies are rising, insurers expect loss ratios to increase and may propose higher rates, a lower insured percentage or a higher deductible at renewal. On the other hand, policyholders with a good loss record that can show their credit management set-up and practice in concrete terms may be able to keep their terms. We recommend preparing for renewal negotiations several months before expiry, not just before it, by organizing your track record and buyer portfolio.

Information worth organizing before renewal:

• Sales, bad debt losses and claims over the past few years
• Each buyer's outstanding balance, limit and payment terms
• Overdue payments and how they were eventually collected
• Your credit management policy and records of how it was applied (setting limits, handling overdue accounts, decisions to stop shipments)
• Sales forecast for the coming year and changes in your buyer portfolio

Using the report internally

Credit insurers' insolvency forecasts are useful not only to the team that handles insurance but also to management and sales when discussing credit policy. For example, you might share the outlook at the meeting where the year's credit policy is set, and review the status of limits on key buyers at the same time. A limit granted by an insurer is also a third-party assessment of the buyer, so it can be used to check your own credit decisions.

Notes on reading the report

• The figures are global aggregates and do not directly show insolvency trends in Japan or in particular sectors.
• The outlook changes with its assumptions. The company itself presents an alternative scenario in which the situation is prolonged.
• Limits on individual buyers are reviewed based on each buyer's financials and payment behavior. Even when the overall outlook worsens, some buyers will still be granted limits.
• This article summarizes published material. Please check the original sources below for details and the latest outlook.

How Credit Hills can help

As an insurance broker specializing in trade credit insurance, Credit Hills applies for limit increases, requests reviews when limits are reduced, approaches other insurers and negotiates terms at renewal. We can also review whether the limits and terms of your current policy match your actual trading.

See our trade credit insurance services →　What is trade credit insurance (insight) →

References

• Allianz Trade — Global Insolvency Outlook 2026-27 (updated April 22, 2026)
• Allianz Trade — Insolvency Report 2026 (news release)
• Allianz Trade — Global Insolvencies Outlook 2026-28 (outlook as of October 2025)